AGI Buildout
What will the path toward AGI require, which constraints will shape it, and where will economic value emerge?
RESEARCH SYSTEM
We map emerging technology supply chains.
An Observatory is a living causal model of an emerging technology system. It directs research toward the unknowns that matter most, tests how changes move through the system, and makes predictions that improve as evidence accumulates.
The goal is a continuously updated view of what comes next, which companies are positioned to benefit, and what remains to be built.
OBSERVATORIES
Each Observatory begins with a question about the future.
The causal model starts with the system as it exists today, then maps the technologies, inputs, and constraints that shape what it could become.
Counterfactuals test how changes move through the system: what becomes necessary upstream, what becomes possible downstream, and where value may emerge.
Biological Design
What new work becomes possible when biology becomes an engineering medium, and what must be built to realize its economic value?
The High Frontier
What must be built to support sustained economic activity beyond Earth, and which new industries will that infrastructure enable?
Architectures of Intelligence
Which approaches beyond today’s LLMs could unlock new forms of machine reasoning, and what will those capabilities make possible?
METHOD
A research system that improves itself.
Each Observatory is designed to identify the uncertainties that matter most, direct research toward them, and refine its model as new evidence arrives.
Counterfactuals explore how change moves through the system. Predictions test the model against the world. Their outcomes shape the next questions.
The purpose is to understand what comes next—and surface where to invest or build.
ABOUT ETHOMICS CAPITAL
Ethomics Capital is an independent research and investment institution focused on how emerging technologies become industries.
Through its Observatories, Ethomics Capital develops causal models of technology supply chains to understand what comes next, identify companies positioned to benefit, and determine what still needs to be built.
The research is intended to guide investments in public and private companies and the formation of new companies where important gaps remain.
UPDATES
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